First approaches in 1961

The application of estimation methods for effort estimation of IT projects is now becoming more and more the focus of many companies. However, there are almost less representative studies or serious publications in this conglomeration. First methodological approaches to estimate IT projects up front were even published in 1961. Worldwide considered scientists have published in the meantime about 100 methods. It can be assumed that the scale and complexity of the thousand-page specification method descriptions act as a deterrent. As a result of lack of knowledge or even false knowledge about estimation methods a wrong “natural law” in thinking have been established: IT projects can not be estimated or aren’t exactly predictable up front.

 

The objective of estimation methods is the creation of a reliable basis of planning

In the context of methods is meant by "estimate" the approximate value of any determination by any method. The primary objective of science is the creation of a reliable basis of planning to minimize the “disruptive human factor” as far as possible. However, estimation methods only provide total effort and total time and serve only to a limited extent security and predictability. Many estimation methods have been mainly developed from the analysis of completed projects, using stochastic and/or heuristic procedures. This applies at least for the statistical/mathematical methods. Again, other methods formalize a conclusion by analogy, the derivation of key figures or simply use a regression. The variety of approaches offers almost no limits and you might think that it will be soon as numerous as the methods of planning and programming languages itself.

 

Increasing competitiveness pressure and shorter cycles of development enhance relevance

At the end of the nineties, industrial companies had almost no serious interest in estimation methods for effort estimation, this was completely in contrast to projects in the military sector. However, this has been changed rapidly with the increased relevance of software and the rise of globalization. The increased competitiveness pressure, shorter development cycles and increased quality requirements have led to the search for new opportunities for reliable planning of IT products and IT projects over their entire lifecycle. The industry has already recognized the capabilities and the estimation process is meanwhile grounded in companies.
 

The demand of the industry, however, also led in Europe to further scientific activity, even up to an adjustment of teaching and curricula in universities. Although estimation methods are at various European universities, both quantitatively and qualitatively usually shown only rudimentary, so now come the first of the young engineers in the industry who are aware of the importance of the estimation methods and use them consistently.

 

We are entering the era of information society and thus in the competition for information. Even current studies demonstrate that the application of estimation methods is an elementary success factor. The knowledge about estimation methods, their scope of applications, functionality and practical relevance associated with the systematic application represents a measurable competitive advantage and sustainable results on the efficiency and productivity.