Expert judgment vs. estimation methodologies

Often it has been proven that estimation methodologies are substantially more reliable than expert judgment. Short technology cycles and constantly rising complexity don’t allow any deduction from experience. The mix of false self-image, resistance to change, persisting in successes of the past, etc. this leads to erroneous estimates and to failures in the software project. Only 25% of all IT projects will be estimated within a variation between estimate and actual data by ± 20%, even systematically realized expert estimates (wide-band Delphi). Moreover this study doesn’t consider that methodological knowledge will stay in the company while the leave of experts at least means also lost of know-how. Our experience shows that a lot of companies are faced with the problem to lose their experts rather often. One more reason the for instant increase of method expertise.

 

Methodical approaches are much more exactly

Methodology driven estimation deliver a deviation of < 20% for 75% of all software projects. This creates a more essential solid basis for decisions and secure planning. However, all methods provide only total effort and total time, without detailed results for optimization of planning or risk minimization. Furthermore, practical orientation and easy application is missing.

 

Our integrated methodological driven solution approach IME enables at 100% of all IT projects a high estimation accuracy. The reliable estimation of effort, time, resources and costs as well as potential risks and defects will be ensured through the integration, combination and systematical enhancement of scientific methods and models of our unique methodology. Our customers are able to achieve a deviation between estimated and actual data of ±10% at 100% of all IT projects. The resilient results provide a secure basis for decision and planning for the economic realization of their IT projects with all desired features in "Time & Budget". In addition, Cost Xpert supports its customers with target oriented method development and expansion.